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Bitcoin's evolving landscape is marked by a surge in retail investor activity through ETFs, a bearish sentiment hitting two-year lows, and increasing challenges for miners amid declining hashprice. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency's adoption faces scrutiny, from high-profile advisory appointments like Eric Trump's to alarming scams involving Bitcoin ATMs. Even the music industry isn't untouched, as a former Eminem engineer faces legal action for selling unreleased tracks for Bitcoin. These stories highlight the multifaceted dynamics shaping Bitcoin's current trajectory.
Bitcoin Bulls Face Reality: Retail Investors Are Already Here
According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the long-anticipated influx of retail investors into Bitcoin has already occurred, primarily through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Ju highlighted that 80% of spot Bitcoin ETF flows originate from retail investors, a trend observed since October 2023. Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, inflows have reached approximately $35.88 billion.
Ju also noted that traditional on-chain metrics might not fully capture retail activity, as many investors are opting for ETFs rather than direct wallet transactions. This shift has kept Bitcoin's realized cap lower than expected. Despite this, Ju predicts a bear market, suggesting it could take 6-12 months for Bitcoin to break its all-time high.
“The idea that the cycle isn’t over just because on-chain retail activity is absent needs reconsideration,” said Ki Young Ju.
Key sentiment indicators, such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, have also shown a decline, with a "Fear" score of 31, down from 49 the previous day. Google search trends for "crypto" have dropped by 62% since January, further signaling reduced retail enthusiasm.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows | $35.88 billion |
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index | 31 (Fear) |
| Google Search Score for "Crypto" | 38 |
Summary: Retail investors are already active in Bitcoin markets, primarily through ETFs, with inflows reaching $35.88 billion. Sentiment indicators suggest a cautious market outlook.
Eric Trump Joins Japanese Bitcoin Firm Metaplanet
Japanese Bitcoin investment company Metaplanet has appointed Eric Trump, son of former U.S. President Donald Trump, to its newly formed strategic board of advisors. The company, which trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, aims to advance Bitcoin adoption and financial innovation.
Previously known as Red Planet Japan, Metaplanet shifted its focus from regional hotel operations to cryptocurrency investments. The company’s subsidiary, Red Planet Hotels Japan, filed for bankruptcy in May 2024. Eric Trump is described as a "leading voice and advocate of digital asset adoption worldwide."
Summary: Metaplanet has rebranded and appointed Eric Trump to its advisory board, signaling a strategic focus on Bitcoin and financial innovation.
Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Two-Year Low
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index for Bitcoin has dropped to 20, its lowest level in over two years, indicating a bearish market sentiment. The index combines ten metrics, including network activity and market liquidity, to gauge overall market health. Historically, scores below 40 have aligned with bear markets.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $84,400, down 23% from its January peak of $109,000. Analysts warn that prolonged bearish conditions could persist unless the Bull Score Index improves significantly. Additionally, Bitcoin's volatility has reached a six-month high, complicating market recovery.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Bull Score Index | 20 |
| Bitcoin Price | $84,400 |
| Peak Price (January 2025) | $109,000 |
Summary: Bitcoin's Bull Score Index has fallen to 20, signaling bearish market conditions. The cryptocurrency is down 23% from its January peak.
Bitcoin ATMs: A Growing Tool for Scammers
Bitcoin ATMs have become a preferred tool for scammers, with consumer losses rising from $12 million in 2020 to $114 million in 2023, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). Older adults are particularly vulnerable, being three times more likely to fall victim to such scams.
Scammers often use urgent scenarios to pressure victims into depositing cash into Bitcoin ATMs. Despite efforts by ATM operators to warn users, the lack of regulations in most U.S. states, including Texas, has made it challenging to combat these scams effectively.
Summary: Bitcoin ATM scams have surged, with losses reaching $114 million in 2023. Older adults are disproportionately affected, highlighting the need for stricter regulations.
Bitcoin Miners Struggle Amid Falling Hashprice
Bitcoin miners are facing financial pressure as the hashprice, or revenue per unit of computing power, dropped to $45/PH/s in February 2025. This marks a significant decline from gains seen during the U.S. election cycle. Transaction fees also hit a low, comprising just 1.3% of total block rewards.
The market capitalization of 15 major mining firms fell from $36 billion in January to $22 billion in March. Companies like Cipher Mining and HIVE Digital have resorted to selling Bitcoin holdings to fund operations. Rising energy costs and increased competition from AI data centers further exacerbate the challenges.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Hashprice | $45/PH/s |
| Mining Firm Market Cap (March 2025) | $22 billion |
| Transaction Fee Share | 1.3% |
Summary: Bitcoin miners are under financial strain due to declining hashprice and transaction fees. The market cap of major mining firms has dropped significantly.
Eminem's Songs Leaked for Bitcoin
Joseph Strange, a former sound engineer for Eminem, has been charged with selling 25 unreleased songs for $50,000 in Bitcoin. Strange allegedly violated a severance agreement that prohibited him from distributing Eminem's work. The FBI discovered handwritten lyric sheets and a VHS tape of an unreleased music video during a raid on Strange's home.
If convicted, Strange faces up to 10 years in prison for interstate transportation of stolen goods and up to five years for copyright infringement. Eminem's representatives emphasized the financial and creative damage caused by the leaks.
Summary: A former Eminem sound engineer has been charged with selling unreleased songs for Bitcoin, facing up to 15 years in prison if convicted.
Einschätzung der Redaktion
The assertion that retail investors have already entered the Bitcoin market through ETFs challenges traditional assumptions about market cycles and on-chain activity. This shift underscores the growing institutionalization of Bitcoin, as ETFs provide a more accessible entry point for retail participants. However, the subdued sentiment indicators and declining search trends suggest that broader retail enthusiasm remains limited, potentially delaying significant price recoveries. The prediction of a prolonged bear market aligns with these observations, emphasizing the need for a reevaluation of market dynamics in the ETF era.
Sources:
- Bad news Bitcoin bulls, the long-hoped-for retail is already here: CryptoQuant
- Japanese bitcoin company Metaplanet names Eric Trump as advisor
- Bitcoin Bullish Sentiment Hits Two-Year Low, Signals Possible 'Prolonged Downturn'
- Why scammers are increasingly turning to bitcoin ATMs to carry out their cons
- Bitcoin Miners Feel the Squeeze as Hashprice Erases Post-Election Gains
- Sound Engineer for Eminem Stole and Sold His Songs for Bitcoin, U.S. Says
